Insurance Risk Reset

Following the successful monitored transit of the first civilian convoy, major Lloyd's underwriters have slashed 'war risk' premiums. This is a massive deflationary force for Brent, which had been carrying a $10 logistical surcharge.

Refinery Slate Normalization

Refineries in Europe and Asia are beginning to see the return of medium-sour grades. This is easing the extreme competition for North Sea Brent, leading to a narrowing of the physical prompt spread.