Insurance Risk Sticky

Insurance underwriters have not yet lowered 'war risk' premiums to pre-blockade levels, citing the need for multiple incident-free transits. This keeps the delivered cost of Brent significantly higher than the paper market suggests.

Global Inventory Hole

The production shut-ins from the previous months have created a global inventory hole that will take the remainder of 2026 to fill, keeping the physical market structurally tight despite the truce.